An entire division of the Iraqi army has deserted and surrendered. No one's sure exactly how many men this is. The upper limit's 10,000, but many divisions are only at half strength.

Turkish troops have crossed the border into the northern Kurdish enclave. They seem to be trying to make sure the Kurds don't try liasing with the Kurdish separatists within Turkey. The Americans are pissed off that the Turks are sticking their oar in.

30 oil wells have been set on fire in southern Iraq, according to Geoff Hoon.

NBC (the US TV channel, not the weapons of mass destruction) announced the first casualties of the war, as 16 coalition troops died in a helicopter accident. A big fuss. Very sad. Very sad indeed.

A moment later, the BBC announced the first coalition casualties of the war, as 16 troops died in a helicopter accident.

NBC seemed to have forgotten about the various Iraqis we've been blasting the shit out of for the past 24 hours.


Coalition troops seem to be making some headway into Iraq. A bunch of US Marines had to fall back after coming under fire, but elsewhere, ground troops have been getting as far as 200km into Iraq.

There have been occasional mass surrenders, but there's also been pretty stiff resistance in places as well.

No news on combat casualties on our side, although BBC correspondents have reported seeing a few Iraqi bodies lying around.

Hmm, the StudentsUnzipped website doesn't seem to be working. The front page is there, but try going to the diaries and it says 'the domain name does not exist'.

Nat left the house last week because the terms of the project were changing, and now the domain's vanished.

I hope the site's not died.

Hmm, just had an MSN conversation with an anonymous female friend of mine, who sent me links to a pair of sex toy mail order websites. (Not for any particular reason other than amusement, you understand... ahem...)

Just spent an hour or so looking through the various pages.

Fifty percent of the products make me wince. The rest are just... fascinating...

I want to design dildos when I grow up.

So far there's been three gas alerts in Kuwait City, and the TV reporters have been ducking for cover while wearing gas masks.

It looks like Saddam at least survived the attack last night - he gave a speech in which he gave today's date (not that it would take a genius to work out the war could start today). There have been suggestions that it was pre-recorded or a body double, but John Simpson, BBC international guy (single-handedly liberated Kabul, remember?) says it almost certainly wasn't. There's no way Saddam would let a double give a speech, and particularly not this one.

It also seemed to unprepared to have been a pre-recorded speech - Saddam was wearing his glasses, for a start, and reading from a notebook, rather than an autocue. John Simpson suggested that he'd written notes as the bombs came down. He rambled for some time about 'Iraqis taking up their swords' - you might tell a double to shut the fuck up and stop repeating himself, but you wouldn't say it to a guy who personally executes ministers who disagrees with him.

One of his sons also made a speech on the radio, although the news didn't say which one - Uday or Qusay. I think it's more likely to be Uday, who has control of much of the media (Qusay's got the military), including the popular Voice Of Iraq FM. Uday's the elder, more psychotic one, virtually crippled by an assassin a few years ago. He's the guy who murders the boyfriends of women he wants to screw.

4.40am
The target of opportunity 'included five key figures of the Iraqi regime, including Saddam Hussein', according to the BBC.

Apparently, Saddam is due to address Iraq shortly, so either one side or the other is mistaken/lying, or the attack failed.

(I've got to go to bed. I can manage a full all-nighter tomorrow night, if necessary.)

The hijacked Cuban airliner seems to have been refugees forcing there way into the US.

Nice timing guys. You're lucky they didn't just blow you out of the sky.

There's currently 'no order' for ground troops to move across the border.

There are, of course, special forces troops inside Iraq, and they probably have been for months.


F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighters launched Tomahawk cruise missiles against the target of opportunity. Still no word on the identity of the target though.

Rageh Omar can't confirm that a radio frequency has been taken over, but he's looking into it.


Apparently, the Iraqis have a tendency to blaze away with everything they've got whenever they think there's a plane overhead, and there is a lot of AA guns in and around Baghdad, so it's hard to tell if the bangs are going up or coming down.

Iraqi radio briefly went off the air a while ago, and a voice came back on to say:

"This is the day we have been waiting for."

The BBC reckon the Americans have managed to hack into the radio frequency and replace it with their own propaganda broadcasts.


The media are still waiting for confirmation about what was going on with that 'target of opportunity'.

Wow. Over to Serbia now. Too much to type up, but the conspiracy to assassinate Zoran Djindjic seems to be reaching pretty high.

The Deputy Public Prosecutor has been arrested and 35 judges (including 7 from the Supreme Court) have been ordered to retire.

Arkan's widow was arrested yesterday.

Anyway, the rest:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2864377.stm

3.10am
According to the Associated Press, US command in Qatar have said it was an attack on a 'target of opportunity' with missiles against the suspected location of the 'Iraqi command'.

If the CIA knew for certain that Saddam was still in the country, it could be the missile strike was aimed at where they reckon he is.

Who knows, maybe they actually managed to kill the bastard.

3.05am
More bombing. Occasional but sustained, and it's full light. The explosions seem to be a long way from Rageh Omar's hotel, since he can't see flashes, and the sound seems distant.

Ari Fleischer has made a statement. He said: 'The disarmament of Iraq has begun.'

I notice he's stopped saying 'regime change'.

2.55am
Rumours of mass desertions in the north of Iraq.

The sun's just risen in Baghdad.

(Got to get this fucking essay written.)

2.30am
Reuters has reported the first air raids on Baghdad. Just a handful of explosions at the moment.


[Update at 2.40am]
ITN reports two bomb hits to the north of the city.

Bush is addressing the nation at 3.15am.

The BBC is pointing out that the element of surprise is being brought into play - nothing all night, giving the Iraqis the assumption that they'll wait until tomorrow night. Now it looks as if a dawn invasion is about to start. Quarter of a million Allied troops... Jesus...


[Update at 2.50am]
The streetlights are still on in Baghdad, and they've been in the middle of an air raid. What the fuck are they playing at?

An ITN news presenter said there was a theory that Saddam was doing it deliberately, using them as a human shield. The correspondent he was talking to said, "If you attack a city of 5 million people, you can't really call them a human shield. They live there."

Damn good point.

Baghdad :: Rageh Omar :: 0115GMT

Baghdad is a completely quiet city. Standing in my hotel room looking out across the skyline and the streets below, I have seen only one car driving at high speed in the last hour. All the streets are deserted.

People have gone to their homes and have stayed there. Last night just after dusk I was walking around and all the shops were shuttered up and people were trying to get home. The streets are empty

People have made their preparations, the market has been full in recent days of people buying what they could, gas lamps, masking tape, dried foods. Now that the deadline has run out people are at home and are likely to stay at home.

I would still describe it as an open city, you would imagine Bagdhad would be braced for war in a military sense. You would imagine tanks on the streets, checkpoints, troops on the junctions of main roads, but they are not there. You do find a few sandbag positions with a couple of soldiers there, but that's it.

I went out to the edge of Baghdad to one of the main highways to the north and there was nothing there really, it was an eerie feeling. To the naked eye driving around here, there is no sense of this being a militarised city.


What the hell is happening in Baghdad?

There's rumours that Tarik Aziz had defected or been executed, and then he turns up telling the US to go fuck itself. In the meantime, Saddam disappears.

Rageh Omar, the BBC correspondent there, is saying there's hardly any sign of the military buildup in Baghdad.

So, the dictator isn't around, a guy who is suspected to have been a traitor turns up alive, looking nervous on the international media's cameras, and the army presence in a capital city of 6 million people (minus refugees) is minimal, and he's got nerve gas tucked away in reserve...

Scorched earth, anyone?

Fuck, a Cuban plane may have just been hijacked. A US military aircraft has escorted it down to an airport in Key West, Florida. Refugees from Castro's latest crackdown, or the first terrorist attack of the war?

1 o'clock.

"It will be tea and medals in Baghdad in a few days time." - anonymous British officer, a few hours ago.

I wonder if he's seen Blackadder Goes Forth?

150,000 mainly US troops are moving up to the Kuwaiti border with Iraq, with less than four hours before the 1am deadline for Saddam and his sons to quit Iraq goes by.

All indications are that the war will start at about 1.01am.

Currently trying to write an essay comparing the language of a newspaper report on an Anti-Nazi League petition to have the Young British National Party leader expelled from Salford University with the BNP's response on their website. Stupid idea of the ANL - he's scum, but that shouldn't lead to him being kicked out of university (and it can't, either).

I keep getting distracted - I recognised the name of one of posters on the comments page as being the BNP's National Press Officer, and left a message pointing out that he'd failed to mention his link to Tony Wentworth (the subject of the petition) while defending him.

Just now, I realised that the BNP article repeatedly plagiarises the Manchester Evening News article I'm comparing it with, and felt the need to tell the MEN about it. Ha, fuck you, you Nazi scum! It's always good to strike a blow against the BNP.

Hmm... seeing which bits the BNP chose to plagiarise and which bits they left out could prove useful material for the essay.

Unfortunately, I've had to plough through the BNP website for background information on the party's ideology (which helps work out the cause or meaning behind the bias in their ). Goddammit, I felt physically sick when I found the photos of their family days out.

I also did a bit of background research for the other groups involved. Apparently, both Tony Wentworth and Mick Treacey (failed Oldham BNP council election candidate, who was present at a protest against Wentworth) have been spotted photographing ANL supporters. These photographs have subsequently appeared on Redwatch, a website that publishes a hitlist of anti-Nazis and has resulted in dozens of attacks, including firebombings.

Of course, Nick Griffin, the leader of the BNP, isn't without his own criminal convictions for inciting racial hatred, and many of the party leadership (including all of the BNP councillors in my home area) have got convictions for violent racist attacks.


Just to get this off my chest, so I can actually focus long enough to write an essay:

FUCKING SCUM!!!

Bugging devices have been found in the offices of the British, French and German delegations to the EU.

France has already hinted that the US is responsible, but there's no evidence (yet) either way. The EU's launching an investigation.

Sounds like the sort of thing the CIA would get caught doing.

Allegedly, Saddam has given battlefield control of chemical weapons to his field-level commanders. This means, in effect, that if they want to use chemical weapons against an invasion, they can do. This report comes from the Pentagon, so it may or may not be true - it does, however, seem likely.

More worryingly, Saddam has told his commanders to be ready for 'the last battle'.

Combine the two, and you've got a distinct possibility of chemical attacks against Allied troops. Less likely (but with x-hundred commanders in charge of their own weapons, still possible), there's the chance that Iraqi civilians or surrendering soldiers will be gassed.

Okay, here's an issue that's just been raised today.

I view MSN conversations as being an interactive form of email. Therefore, I tend to save important ones as .txt files, so that if I ever try to remember what it was that was said in a particular conversation, I can look it up.

Liz compared saving an MSN conversation to recording a phone call to a friend. I didn't particularly enjoy being compared to Linda Tripp, oddly enough.

No one else has ever objected to me saving an MSN conversation, and I disagree that it counts as a text-based phonecall. The immediate alternative to an MSN conversation isn't (for me at least) to ring someone up, it's to send an email. No one complains if you save old emails, or old letters, so where's the problem in saving an MSN conversation?

It's not even a real conversation - you type something you don't want to say, therefore you delete it and retype something else. Try doing that with speech, and you end up calling your girlfriend "a slu..., no, I mean, you were drunk, yes, that's it, you were drunk".

MSN Messenger is interactive email, simple as that.

Any opinions?

Update - Saddam Hussein has refused to go into exile. At 1am (GMT), Bush is going to go on air and give the final ultimatum.

Robin Cook has just given his resignation speech to the House of Commons (10pm), and received a round of applause from the house - a breach of protocol, where applause isn't allowed.

Update - Robin Cook's resigned, and Clare Short's tipped to follow.

She says she's going to decide overnight. Presumably she's deciding whether she can do more inside the cabinet, as International Development Minister, or outside. I say she should stay, simply because Iraq needs someone like her if they stand a chance of rebuilding.

Some commentators are counting the start to war in hours.

Russia and France are expecting to use their veto on the Iraq motion, in a debate starting at 3pm GMT.

After that, Bush is going to address the US tonight, giving Saddam a few hours to quit Iraq.

I don't see exile as the likely outcome, although Saddam has gone for brinkmanship before now. There's nothing to stop him grabbing x billion dollars and skipping off to some tropical island somewhere - it's either that or he dies. Does anyone really believe that the US wants him put on trial for war crimes committed using American chemical weapons, with the support of many in the current Bush administration?

This time tomorrow, we could be at war, and the UN could be going down the pan.


Consequences for Britain
This leaves me in an odd position - I support a war to overthrow Saddam (even if it is 15 years too late - it was the anniversary of Halabja yesterday), yet I also think it's wrong to go against the UN.

The main flaw in the UN, in this kind of situation, isn't the use of the veto, but the very existence of the veto. Basically, the winners of World War II said, 'Let's set up this new league of na... er, united nations, where every country is equal, and no one country can threaten the rest in the way that Germany did.' Then they went and thought about it, and added, 'But some countries should be more equal than others.'

The five main winners of World War II each hold a veto and a permanent position on the UN Security Council. This means that they are the ultimate authority over any security decisions made by the United Nations. They're effectively above the law, but because they've been split along east-west lines until now, barely anyone's cared.

Now, with a warmonger in the White House, plus one of the former 'Western Three' turning on the other two and aligning with the former Big Red Menace, the main failing of the UN's primary objective - to prevent conflict - is in danger of failing. The League Of Nations collapsed and started World War II.

That's not going to happen here - Iraq is isolated and without anyone willing to pitch in against someone as overwhelmingly powerful as the US war machine (ignoring the threats from North Korea - if that's a safe thing to do...), the fact that diplomacy has evolved somewhat since the imperialist days pre-1950, and the knowledge that a global war will turn nuclear, there's no risk of a World War One-style everybody-declares-war-on-everyone-else domino effect.

It could destroy the UN's authority though. There is no way the US or UK can be punished for starting a war in defiance of a UN Security Council decision, because the US and UK are the UN Security Council. Sanctions? Veto. Expulsion? Veto (and probably what the US wants anyway - although that would leave Israel hanging in the wind). Censure? Veto, and pretty meaningless anyway.


Replacing the UN
So, if the UN does go bye-bye, what's next?

The UN performs a lot of vital functions - aid agencies, health stuff, co-ordinating economic stuff - but on security issues, it's hopelessly skewed towards the permanent members. 'This is our club, we make the rules.'

The only viable alternative would be (and yes, I've even come up with a name), the World Forum. It's basically the same as the UN, but the Security Council consists of thirteen countries, cycling through sequentially, in a random order (you know, random, but if you've been picked before, you don't get to do it until everyone else has had a go).

Importantly, the only veto is in the hands of the membership.

In the event of a united Security Council that is pitched against the rest of the WF membership, the members could then decide to override the Security Council resolution. What, a two thirds majority against the Security Council decision could act as a reasonable check and balance, couldn't it, while reducing the likelihood of a major power gathering so many smaller countries to back it up that it is possible for one member to override the Security Council 'by itself'.

(And I'll be the Secretary-General, if no one minds...)

Vampire Ho



What type of vampire are you?

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Hmm...

Apparently I feel the need to behave like a vampire lesbian slut threesome.

Let's leave out the biting (a nibble's fine, but nothing that actually leaves wounds), but keep the other two nymphomaniac (semi-)lesbians. Could be fun.

...

Jesus Christ, I need a girlfriend... :-)

Or a night of wild, passionate sex.

Or both.